Monday, October 6, 2008

I hate to look at our 401(k) lately

Our 401(k) has been in a tailspin over the past six months, with the most recent financial crisis only seeming to accelerate that trend. I tried to move my money around to different funds to stem the downward slide, but all funds appear to be losing value across the board with the only distinction being the rate of decline. Small US Equity, Large US Equity, Bonds, International, and Emerging Market funds are on a downward trend. In fact, my portfolio has lost more than 16% in value since January. The so called experts say to ride it out by keeping a diversified portfolio consistent with when you want the investments to mature. Well, Laura and I won’t be retiring for 20 years, so we are “in it for the long haul”, but our options seem to be bad or worse. Nothing seems to be a safe haven. Furthermore, these experts say look at the downward slide as an opportunity to purchase bargains that will eventually climb back up when the markets recover. Perhaps that is so, but the constant drop and rebound cycle in the Dow Jones average (and in the market as a whole) over the past few weeks seems to be fueled more by panic than by a reasoned evaluation of the relative earning potential of the underlying corporate entities that issued the stocks. And, if the experts are panicking, what hope is there that a small time investors like myself will make the right choice for their retirement accounts. Remember, these same so called experts were the ones who didn’t see this bank crisis coming. What is really scary to me is that just four years ago, the government was talking about privatizing Social Security. If we had done that, what would the safety net be for someone who loses their retirement savings during one of these panic cycles?

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